It was 60 days in the past that the young forward was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him for missing a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause of Villa's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. When the England international swept in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their opening six games, are somehow a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough proposition to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, while the wins have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa posted an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a club which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, they look weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for Rogers to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- The winger might become the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as an essential England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. When the match-winner faced the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.
