Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
